We’re now in the eye of the GW storm, 2014s games have been and gone, 2015s are yet to be played. With two rounds left to play, who’s in and who’s out of finals contention?
Before I get going, first up is an apology for the lack of posts since the last, Round 8. The life outside gridiron got in the way a bit and left the site in a lurch unfortunately. It will happen from time to time when there’s only one person updating consistently. However, it doesn’t have to if we have more help from the community. To make this a better, more informative site, thought needs to go into how to make it better. If you want to give me a hand, feel free to jump in and we can make it happen. Make contact here.
So, 4 rounds have passed since we last spoke and it’s all come to this; the final 2 rounds and the top 4 are yet to be 100% decided, both juniors and seniors. That’s not to say there aren’t certainty’s, of course. Let’s get into it.
Currently, our top 4 looks like this:
- Blitz – 30 Points
- Steelers – 30 Points
- Vipers – 28 Points
- Jets – 22 Points
Now, outside of that top 4 are the Wolverines (18), Saints (16) and Broncos (0). The Broncos and Wolverines are out. However, even though they’ve got less points than the Wolverines, the Saints still mathematically have a shot at a finals berth. The way the tie breaker is calculated, the second determiner is the for and against record against each other. The head to head is 1 each but the points tally has the Jets at +4. Since the Wolverines only have one game left, they can’t knock the Jets out. The Blitz and Steelers are confirmed, they can’t finish below 3rd place, as are the Vipers, they can’t drop out of the 4 but can still finish 4th as they’ve only got one game to play. A win and they too can’t finish below 3rd. The only other team that can shake things up is the Saints. Their last two games are against top 4 sides, Vipers and Blitz. The Jets are similar, with the Blitz and Steelers rounding out their season. The Saints need favourable results from the Jets games (i.e. them losing) as well as two wins. With the Jets handily leading their head to head 2-0 for the season, they can’t rely on a draw to get them over the line.
If the top 4 stays the same, it’ll be the Blitz’ second season running since their inaugural season in 2012-13 as well as the Steeler’s second in a row since finishing top in 2008-09 and taking out their last title for the club with a 24-0 over the Vipers in Junior West Bowl IV.
EDIT 30-Dec: Because of a problem with the scoresheets, the Wolverines v Jets game in Round 9 was incorrectly listed as a Jets win, when it was a Wolverines win. This changes the picture slightly as it’s now the Wolverines occupying 4th place, not the Jets, on 22 points. Now, this means that with an adjusted head to head record of 2-0 to the Wolverines, a win over the Broncos in the last round secures them a finals berth even if the Jets win both of their games. This change also means that the Vipers can’t finish below 3rd no matter what as the highest either the Jets or Wolverines can attain is 26 points.
Over in the seniors, the picture is much clearer. While it’s still mathematically possible for the Vipers to finish second, the Saints will have to put a 32+ buffer on the scoreline to ensure that. Anything else will result in a perfect 12-0 record for the Vipers, the first undefeated season since the Broncos in 2012-13 and the only perfect regular season on record (the records going back 10 of the 20 years, if you have more, let us know).
Outside of the top 4 are the Wolverines, Jets and Broncos. With the Wolverines, zero points has put their season to bed and with one game left to play, they’ve got pride on the line. The Broncos and Jets are both on 10 points and can mathematically still make it. Favourable results are required in both scenarios, of course, but it’s still possible. Interestingly, the Jets should be hoping for a Broncos win in Round 13 as it helps both their causes but they’ll need to round out their season against the Steelers at home to ensure the job is done. One loss along the way from either the Jets or Broncos will hand the Steelers a 4th place and first finals berth since 2011-12 with the lowest points (16) since the Broncos in 2005 (assuming no wins in their last two games, even at 24 points it’s still the next lowest); 12 points being the minimum required to get in to the finals (it was a 10 game season, too).
The Saints and Blitz have the chance to switch positions but that’s about it for the last two rounds. With the bookends of the Vipers (1st) and (most likely) Steelers (4th), the finals are pretty much set:
- Vipers v Steelers
- Saints v Blitz
Rounds 13 and 14
There’s still almost a fortnight of rest to happen before the last rounds kick off on the 9th of January. We go into those rounds at Mt Claremont and first up on Friday night is Jets v Blitz under lights. Following them on Saturday is Saints v Vipers in the Vipers last game of the season preceding Broncos v Steelers who’ve still got a chance left if they can muster the personnel.